Americans prepare to spend $1 trillion this holiday shopping season

By Brett Rowland
The Center Square

More than half of all Americans plan to buy things over the five-day holiday weekend, the beginning of a retail shopping season with consumers projected to spend more than $1 trillion.

Some 186.9 million people plan to shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, according to a consumer survey from the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. That’s about 3 million more shoppers than last year, when about 183.4 million people hit stores to spend more than $970 billion.

“The holidays are an important part of many consumers’ budgets, and that trend is especially true this season,” NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said. “As a record number of shoppers are expected this Thanksgiving weekend, retailers are prepared to meet the needs of consumers with great value and convenience.”

The National Retail Federation’s annual holiday forecast projects retail sales in November and December will grow between 3.7% and 4.2% above 2024. Total spending is estimated at between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion.

In comparison, 2024 holiday sales rose 4.3% over 2023 and reached $976.1 billion, according to the federation. Retailers remain optimistic despite economic challenges.

“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season.”

The latest holiday survey found that consumers plan to spend an average of $890.49 per person this year. This includes gifts, food, decorations and seasonal items. It is the second highest figure in the survey’s 23-year history.

NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews said retailers have tried to hold down prices.

“The economy has continued to show surprising resilience in a year marked by trade uncertainty and persistent inflation,” he said. “As tariffs have induced an uptick in consumer prices, retailers have tried to hold the line on prices given the uncertainty about trade policies.”

Seasonal hiring is project to slump compared with last year. NRF expects retailers to hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers. That’s down significantly from 442,000 seasonal hires in 2024.

Thanksgiving often marks the start of the holiday shopping season.

Many Americans consider shopping an integral part of their Thanksgiving celebrations. They also view it as one of the best ways to get deals on gifts, according to Phil Rist, executive vice president of strategy at Prosper Insights & Analytics.

“Of those planning to take advantage of sales, over half say it’s because the deals are too good to pass up,” he said. “Others point to the tradition or simply say they like to start their holiday shopping during the long weekend.”

As of early November, 58% of consumers reported that they had already begun holiday shopping. That’s largely in line with previous years. On average, holiday shoppers have completed about 26% of their planned purchases.

The top items consumers plan to give this year are clothing and accessories (50%), gift cards (43%) and toys (32%), according to NRF.

The survey asked 8,000 adults about holiday shopping. It was conducted Oct. 31-Nov. 6 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percentage points.