Cost estimates vary, even as Denmark says Greenland is not for sale

By Brett Rowland
The Center Square

President Donald Trump’s plans to acquire Greenland could cost U.S. taxpayers up front and over the long term.

Denmark’s leaders have said the semi-autonomous Danish territory isn’t for sale. So have Greenland’s leaders, who depend on fishing and subsidies from Copenhagen. Denmark’s central bank noted in a recent report that Greenland’s “economy is slowing down, with modest growth and serious challenges for public finances.”

Trump said U.S. ownership of Greenland is vital to national security, citing concerns that the island could otherwise be controlled by China or Russia. He has said his preference is to buy Greenland.

“I would like to make a deal the easy way, but if we don’t do it the easy way, we’re going to do it the hard way,” Trump said Friday.

Buying the nation could cost billions or trillions, depending on how the Arctic island of population 57,000 is valued. Because the market for buying and selling nations is extremely limited, there’s no universally accepted formula for determining a nation’s worth. That hasn’t stopped people from trying to devise one.

One analysis of Greenland’s potential cost comes from the American Action Forum, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank. The group’s estimates range from $186 billion to $4.4 trillion.

That high-end figure represents the value of Greenland’s total critical mineral and energy assets, which are worth approximately $4.4 trillion. However, the American Action Forum analysis notes that Greenland stopped issuing oil and gas exploration licenses in 2021 due to cost and climate concerns.

That would knock the value down to about $2.7 trillion.

On the low end, $186 billion is the value for Greenland’s mineral reserves considered economically viable for extraction.

“Basically valuing Greenland as a giant mineral mine is one approach that we took,” American Action Forum Trade Policy Analyst Jacob Jensen told The Center Square.

Based on the value of land in Iceland, buying all the land in Greenland would cost about $2.76 trillion.

Others have taken different approaches.

In 2019, Financial Times’ Alphaville estimated Greenland was worth $1.1 trillion. Former New York Federal Reserve economist David Barker estimated Greenland was worth between $12.5 billion and $77 billion, the New York Times reported. On Wednesday, NBC News reported an estimated value of $500 billion to $700 billion, citing unnamed sources close to the matter.

However, even getting started could cost U.S. taxpayers because Greenlanders don’t want to become part of America either as U.S. citizens – like those in the territories of Puerto Rico, Guam, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Northern Mariana Islands – or U.S. nationals, such as those in America Somoa.

An independent poll done in 2025 found that about 85% of Greenlanders don’t want to join America.

U.S. officials have discussed sending direct payments to Greenland residents to convince them to leave Denmark and join the U.S., Reuters reported. U.S. officials discussed figures from $10,000 to $100,000 per person, according to anonymous sources cited by the news agency.

At $100,000 per person, the cost to open the door could be as much as $5.7 billion for the nation’s 57,000 residents.

Earlier this month, Denmark’s central bank found Greenland faces “challenges for public finances in the form of large deficits and a long-term sustainability problem.” That report noted that investment in Greenland is expensive and supported by taxpayers in Denmark. Total investments amounted to 36% of gross domestic product in 2023. Gross domestic product is a measure of total economic activity for a nation.

“Few countries in the world had a similarly high level of investment activity in relation to production output,” the central bank said.

Trump said Wednesday morning that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a 32-nation military and political alliance, should be leading discussions for the U.S. to annex Greenland.

In a social media post, he wrote in part, “The United States needs Greenland for the purpose of National Security. It is vital for the Golden Dome that we are building. NATO should be leading the way for us to get it.”

He cited his concerns about Russia or China if not the United States. He said NATO would be more formidable and effective with Greenland in the hands of America.

Trump added: “Anything less than that is unacceptable.”

Trump also said Greenland can’t defend itself.

“Two dogsleds won’t do it! Only the USA can!!!” the president wrote in a another post.

NATO was founded on the principle of collective defense, meaning that an attack on one nation would be considered an attack on all. That collective defense provision has only been used once, after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorists attacks on the U.S.

Trump’s comments come ahead of a planned meeting between U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and officials from Greenland and Denmark on Wednesday at the White House.

Last year, Trump outlined plans for a $175 billion missile defense shield, which he dubbed the Golden Dome. The system Trump envisions would protect the U.S. and Canada using multiple layers of defense against diverse potential attacks, making it much more complex than previous proposals.

The Golden Dome would also include space-based sensors and interceptors, as the president stated, which would be capable of intercepting missiles launched from space.