Poll reports Arizona approval of Trump hits new low

By Zachery Schmidt
The Center Square

President Donald Trump has his lowest job approval rating on record in Arizona, according to a new poll.

Noble Predictive Insights released a poll showing that Trump’s current job approval rating is -17.

Mike Noble, NPI’s CEO, told The Center Square on Tuesday that Trump’s current approval rating is worse than it was after the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol, when it was -13.

Noble said Trump is losing significant support among independent voters.

According to Noble, the drop in overall support “can be tied to the economic pain point, especially gas prices.” NPI released a poll earlier in May showing that gas prices will affect how nearly 70% of state residents vote in the general election, with Democrats being favored if prices remain high.

The new NPI poll found Arizona voters are souring on Trump’s handling of the economy. Approval of Trump’s handling of the economy is at -27, the poll said.

In his first term, Trump had a “lower job approval rating, but his economic job approval rating was better,” Noble explained.

Trump’s economic numbers have taken a big hit since Feb. 28, which is when the U.S.-Israel conflict started with Iran.

In February, Republicans had +63 economic job approval for Trump, but in May it dropped to +43, a 20-point decline, Noble said.

This number suggests Trump is losing some of his voter base, Noble said.

The NPI CEO said Trump saw a 10-point drop in Democrats’ and independent voters’ approval of the president’s handling of the economy. Democrats went from -81 to -91, and independents, from -34 to -44.

Arizonans are blaming Trump rather than Gov. Katie Hobbs for current economy, Noble said.

This is a “big deal” because the Democratic Arizona governor is running for reelection this year, Noble said.

The poll noted Hobbs’ job approval is at +5, while her handling of Arizona’s economy breaks even.

The survey also found Democrats have a 1-point advantage over Republicans on a generic congressional ballot in a state where Republicans have a 7.5-point voter registration advantage.

Noble told The Center Square that this is “huge” for Democrats because there are more Republicans than Democrats in the state.

Democrats have an advantage over Republicans because independents lean toward Democrats by about 13 points, Noble said.

Around 10 years ago, Noble said independents were leaning toward Republicans rather than Democrats.

Noble said Trump’s low job approval rating will be hard for Republicans to get around and that it will affect GOP candidates running in November.

The NPI poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%.

The Center Square reached out to the gubernatorial campaigns of Hobbs and a Republican gubernatorial candidate, U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Gilbert, but did not hear back before press time. Biggs is ahead of U.S. Rep. David Schweikert, R-Fountain Hills, by 30 points in an NPI poll for the state’s Republican primary. Hobbs is running unopposed in the Democratic primary. Both parties’ primaries will take place on July 21. The winners will face each other in the Nov. 3 general election. The NPI poll shows Hobbs ahead of Biggs by 4 points if a general election took place today.