Election 2026: For one of the four seats, trouble brews

By Alan Wooten
The Center Square

Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988, Kentucky since 1992, Louisiana and North Carolina since 2008.

Respectively, outgoing Republican Sens. John Cornyn, Mitch McConnell, Dr. Bill Cassidy and Thom Tillis are accused of being of the party in name only, and a fair number from their party are glad to see them go. In three of the four races in November, their departure won’t matter too much for their party because the state leans Republican.

But for purplish North Carolina, the Grand Old Party has an imposing rally to complete to keep the streak. Republican Michael Whatley, notable as the leader of the Republican National Convention handpicked to get Donald Trump back in the White House, trails Democrat Roy Cooper in fundraising, polls and increasingly important as the clock ticks, name recognition.

“A failed governor, Roy Cooper spent eight years releasing violent criminals into North Carolina’s communities, drove up costs for working families, and deserted thousands of victims devastated by Hurricane Helene,” said Executive Director Alex Latcham of the Senate Leadership Fund after $71 million from $342 million went to the North Carolina race. “By contrast, Michael Whatley is a successful entrepreneur and strong ally of President Trump who always puts North Carolina’s families first.”

The dollars of the pivotal super political action committee are expected to eventually be spent in Texas; Cornyn lost his primary to state Attorney General Ken Paxton on Tuesday. McConnell’s Kentucky and Cassidy’s Louisiana are strong Republican grounds, with May 19 primary winner Andy Barr and June 27 runoff survivor Julia Letlow or John Fleming, respectively, expected to win in November.

The four departing Republicans voted plenty with the party. Ultimately, they were unwanted by second-term Republican President Donald Trump.

Tillis drew the mercurial leader’s ire as one of two holdouts on a reconciliation bill last June. He’s also been a thorn in confirmation committee work, and even back to the first term. Still, he carried a 9-0 record in 23 years of political elections, notably flipping his seat in 2014 from the late Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan.

“It’s not a hard choice,” he said of being done with partisan gridlock of Washington and saying he would not seek reelection.

Party battle wounds are many.

Cornyn’s “Trump’s time has passed him by” line three years ago was never forgotten. Even still, Paxton didn’t get the presidential endorsement against him until May 19 – a week ahead of the runoff with early voting already ongoing. Cornyn also supports the filibuster rule, criticized the 2017 firing of FBI Director James Comey and defended Special Counsel Robert Mueller regarding a Russian investigation.

McConnell drew blame following the elections of 2020 and 2022; was accused of being a main part of Washington’s establishment; and was even called “a pawn for the Democrats to get whatever they want.” His wife, Elaine Chao, was once Transportation secretary in the administration, but that relationship suffered as well.

Five years have passed since Cassidy voted to convict Trump in the impeachment trial after the events of Jan. 6, 2021, at the Capitol.

“Bill’s loss was predictable, and Bill knew it,” said Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., in published reports, adding he respected him for running anyway.

Cassidy even labored diligently to navigate the waters. For example, as a physician he questioned Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s stance on vaccines yet still delivered a confirmation vote. Cassidy has chaired the Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, adding even more impact to his vote.

For Tillis, he and Trump had different views on Medicaid and tax policy. His blocks or holding out until late on nominees, such as federal prosecutor Ed Martin or War Department Secretary Pete Hegseth, were another division, as was speculation on controlling Greenland. Tillis also didn’t like the rhetoric on what did or did not happen Jan. 6, 2021.

Collectively, the four were generally reliable votes as Republicans and in many occasion gave support to the president. Just not always.

And in 14 weeks, absentee ballots go into the mail in North Carolina ahead of Nov. 3 Election Day. Without a doubt, a Cooper win would definitely mark another “nay” vote to the Trump agenda.

The Senate today is 53 Republicans, 47 Democrats and two independents caucusing with the minority party. Thirty-five Senate seats will be decided – two of which are special elections.

Forecasts have it close – prediction markets favoring 50 Democrats, 49 Republicans and one too close to call; the renowned website 270towin says consensus is four too close to call, 50 Republicans and 46 Democrats.

Tough as any metric for Whatley, aside from what money pours in for each campaign, is polls asking about favorability or recognition. In the Carolina Journal poll this month, 52.7% either have no opinion (19.3%) or say they have not heard (33.4%) of Whatley. That’s great disparity from Cooper’s 11.7% combined for no opinion (8%) or never heard of him (3.7%).

“Roy Cooper’s double-digit lead over Michael Whatley is real – but it’s not just a generic midterm backlash,” said Donald Bryson, CEO of the John Locke Foundation and publisher of Carolina Journal. “Cooper’s 24 years of statewide name recognition is a massive advantage that no challenger can easily overcome. At the same time, Republicans are fighting headwinds: President Trump’s approval is underwater, while a majority of North Carolinians say the country is on the wrong track. That combination makes this Senate race even more difficult for the party in the White House.”

Whatley is arriving at his first public office election. His work has been hailed at the national level. On the ground, his campaign is nearing a sweep of stumping in all 100 counties. Wednesday, he was in the coastal Pender County community of Hampstead celebrating “250 years of American exceptionalism and strength.”

Cooper, a career politician, has six statewide victories (two for governor, four for attorney general) in his 13-0 ledger inclusive of state Senate and House of Representatives races he began five decades ago in the 1980s.

According to Federal Elections Commission information, Cooper’s cash on hand at the end of the first quarter March 31 was $18.4 million. Whatley was at $2.5 million.

Earlier this month, twice in five days Cooper’s poll lead on Whatley increased. Carolina Forward had it 49%-42% with margin of error +/- 3.3%; Carolina Journal had it 49.8%-38.7% with margin of error +/- 4%. Sampling for each was within the first 11 days of the month.

“If you’re a Republican candidate running in a competitive race in North Carolina this year, these are tough results,” said Rebekah Whilden, executive director of Carolina Forward. “The evidence is piling up, between polling results like these as well as in special elections around the country, that the voters do not like what they’re seeing and demanding a course correction.”

The president was fine with losing Cornyn, McConnell, Cassidy and Tillis. He firmly believed Whatley can win the state where he’s triumphed three times.

Election Day is five months from Tuesday. North Carolina voters get ballots in 14 weeks.

So, while it’s not the left field sun at Yankee Stadium, Yogi Berra’s famous line applies: “It gets late early out there.”